Targets as drivers of future progress or reflections of past action?

February 6, 2026

Showcases

Targets as drivers of future progress or reflections of past action?

The showcase’s starting point in energy research

Countries around the world have set net-zero targets – but what do these mean, and how likely are they to be achieved? A research article by NFDI4Energy members uses open data to test the historic influence of climate and energy targets on policy outcomes. The analysis explores whether countries are setting targets that exceed their performance in the setting year and will require extra effort to meet, and which kinds of targets are associated with better performance in terms of emissions reductions and shares of renewable energy or electricity. The findings lend support to authors who question the role of targets in policy-making, as countries are not only setting targets they have already achieved, but, in some cases, those setting relatively unambitious targets actually perform better than others. In other words, it may be the path-dependence of past performance and other factors, such as policies and supporting institutions, and not targets, that signal continued or accelerated action.

Motivation and research requirements

There is a lack of open, machine-readable information on what targets countries have actually set and whether they are getting more ambitious over time which prevents assessments of their effectiveness. However, this is a highly relevant policy issue as the Paris Agreement encourages target-setting and ratcheting up ambition over time. There is therefore a need to provide data and analyses which are accessible to policymakers to inform decision-making.

NFDI4Energy solution

The NFDI4Energy-funded Climate Policy Atlas provides open, machine-readable dataset for climate and renewable energy targets. We used this data to evaluate countries’ climate performance, finding that target-setting behavior varies across country income groups, and that some countries set targets that they had already met in the year they set the targets. We have also created an online tool to visualize and explore renewable energy and climate targets to make the data more accessible to policy users.